Stupid math...

Braden Campbell · Fri Feb 02, 2007 11:43 am

This came out of a conversation with Greyaxe. it happened when we tried to figure out just how many planets (life-bearing planets) there are in the CCW. Here it is....

First we need to assume the following - The Corkscrew has 162 billion stars, the Thundercloud has 18 billion stars, and the Anvil has 4 million stars. These numbers are educated guesses based on the size of our own galaxy, the Milky Way.

Second, we accept the following - that of those stars, only .1% will form a planet with some kind of intelligent life on it (this low percentage is to keep the numbers down)

Third, from the original Phase World book - the CCW controls 33% of the Corkscrew (53,460,000 worlds), 20% of the Thundercloud (3,600,000 planets), and 50% of the Anvil (2000 worlds). The total number of Consotium planets would then be 57,062,000!

Furthuremore - since there are only 231 Consortium Member races, we can use these numbers to inferr that for every 247,000 life-bearing planets, that there is one species who has hit a "galactic age" civilization.

So... space is big.

Greyaxe · Unread post by **Greyaxe** » Fri Feb 02, 2007 1:11 pm

Beat me to the post,
The drake equasion for everybody else.
The Drake Equation was developed by Frank Drake in 1961 as a way to focus on the factors which determine how many intelligent, communicating civilizations there are in our galaxy. The Drake Equation is:

N = N* fp ne fl fi fc fL
The equation can really be looked at as a number of questions:

N* represents the number of stars in the Milky Way Galaxy
Question: How many stars are in the Milky Way Galaxy?
Answer: Current estimates are 100 billion.
fp is the fraction of stars that have planets around them
Question: What percentage of stars have planetary systems?
Answer: Current estimates range from 20% to 50%.
ne is the number of planets per star that are capable of sustaining life
Question: For each star that does have a planetary system, how many planets are capable of sustaining life?
Answer: Current estimates range from 1 to 5.
fl is the fraction of planets in ne where life evolves
Question: On what percentage of the planets that are capable of sustaining life does life actually evolve?
Answer: Current estimates range from 100% (where life can evolve it will) down to close to 0%.
fi is the fraction of fl where intelligent life evolves
Question: On the planets where life does evolve, what percentage evolves intelligent life?
Answer: Estimates range from 100% (intelligence is such a survival advantage that it will certainly evolve) down to near 0%.
fc is the fraction of fi that communicate
Question: What percentage of intelligent races have the means and the desire to communicate?
Answer: 10% to 20%
fL is fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations live
Question: For each civilization that does communicate, for what fraction of the planet's life does the civilization survive?
Answer: This is the toughest of the questions. If we take Earth as an example, the expected lifetime of our Sun and the Earth is roughly 10 billion years. So far we've been communicating with radio waves for less than 100 years. How long will our civilization survive? Will we destroy ourselves in a few years like some predict or will we overcome our problems and survive for millennia? If we were destroyed tomorrow the answer to this question would be 1/100,000,000th. If we survive for 10,000 years the answer will be 1/1,000,000th.
When all of these variables are multiplied together when come up with:
N, the number of communicating civilizations in the galaxy.

Greyaxe · Unread post by **Greyaxe** » Fri Feb 02, 2007 1:14 pm

Here is the link if you want to do some fun math.

http://www.activemind.com/Mysterious/To ... ation.html

Braden Campbell · Fri Feb 02, 2007 1:17 pm

Problem with Drake is that we don't have enough numbers (at least for Phase World).

My first post is at least based on published facts and numbers (such as they are)

Greyaxe · Unread post by **Greyaxe** » Fri Feb 02, 2007 1:43 pm

The one assumption in PW that is routinely made is once a civilization reaches a technological level they automatically survive into the space age.
Drake assumes that a species may not survive a technological era which I had not considered myself. It does make things a little more interesting. However what drake does not take into consideration is first contact.

It is very likely that a space civilization like the CCW monitors its non space faring races and when this race is old enough or mature enough to look at the stars and question its own existence they may make contact with this species. It is very likely that this species will accidentally make contact given the amount of radio communication in the three G any people who have a program like our own Setti will without doubt pickup the communication of space races long before they are “Warp Capable”. At this time they would enter a technological adolescence where the governing bodies of this planet would have to decide how much or how little interference this space faring civilization is permitted to offer.

I doubt in the Transgalactic Empire they even bother waiting and the non space faring races are conquered and absorbed into the galactic collective.

Greyaxe · Unread post by **Greyaxe** » Fri Feb 02, 2007 2:08 pm

The CCW is a collective of free worlds joining together for mutual benefit. As such by their very methods of organization and self government they would not force the CCW methods of government or laws upon anyone who did not want it. Therefore the worlds which are not technologically advanced would need protection and in providing this protection would also require these worlds to be protected from the protectors. Unless as my previous post indicated they discover the existence of a powerful and advanced civilization at which time thy may successfully communicate and request a more active role in the galactic affairs. I suspect of the 231 races that form the CCW there would be at least a few which do not have FTL capabilities but request via communications with the CCW to become members or at least a protectorate

Here is a question lets assume some planets within CCW space do not wish to be part of the CCW. We can safely say the CCW lets them have their space, how far does that go, you can have your solar system or a dozen solar systems and would they have to pay protection fees for being within the CCW space and safe from alien invaders?

Greyaxe · Unread post by **Greyaxe** » Fri Feb 02, 2007 3:47 pm

The math has got to be wrong. The population of the CCW is roughly
8 340 000 000 000, which when divided across the planets is roughlt 140 000 people per planet. Far too small a population per planet. So lets say 0.1% of a habitable planet or moon of that number .1% have been discovered and are colonized. Which puts the average CCW planet at 1.4 billion population, which isn't bad

shiiv-a · Unread post by **shiiv-a** » Fri Feb 02, 2007 5:12 pm

pardon my ignorance here.

but this is about how many habitable planets that are capable of 'space travel' .. and thus would be viable members of some HUGE comglomerant of peoples.
this is not taking into consideration the planets that MAY be inhabited.
or irresponsible spacers that will go 'raid' and take over a world or two and try to enrich themselves with that worlds bounty.
think back to the white slavers that harvested south africa for able bodies as slaves. no thought was made to them or for them. it was about 'profit'

so, that might work for 'space worthy' planets .. but not for planets that support life that hasn't reached the 'space age'. thus the various powers that run the political wheeling and dealing [CCW in this instance], will NOT be too concerned with 'lesser beings', as they DONT really have much to offer.

just my thoughts, but irambled and may have lost my point

taalismn · Unread post by **taalismn** » Fri Feb 02, 2007 7:03 pm

American Indians didn't have much to offer the Europeans either...except the ground under their feet....

While the 'greater' powers of the 3Gs may have various regulations amounting to the Star Trek Federation 'Prime Directive', most star nations probably don't bother(the TGE certainly wouldn't), and the United Worlds of Warlock have a different definition of 'space faring'(would a working knowledge of dimensional rifts count?)...so what we have are plenty of potentially exploitable worlds where life is just energing or is at a pre-space travel level....

Of course, some of the cultures so contacted and assimilated in this manner may acquire spacecraft on their own, learning how to use the technology without necessarily assimilating the technological or cultural background needed to maintain the starships and the sort fo culture that originally developed them(i.e. the sort of 'enlightenment' of the greater powers of the 3G). These peoples will carry their culture from star to star, buying/acquiring new ships as needed, but desperate for the money to buty servicing and new parts...These folk frequently become the sort of 'NeoBarbs' Paul Anderson wrote about in his 'Ensign Flandry' novels....barbarians with starships, raiding other worlds for slaves, skilled technicians, or the resources to enrich their homelands(even though such resources might be found more easily closer to hand and home, such as asteroid mining and space habitats), further complicating the matter of defining 'spacefaring' as a result of natural evolution...

Braden Campbell · Fri Feb 02, 2007 9:43 pm

taalismn wrote:...These folk frequently become the sort of 'NeoBarbs' Paul Anderson wrote about in his 'Ensign Flandry' novels....barbarians with starships, raiding other worlds for slaves, skilled technicians, or the resources to enrich their homelands...

Good thinking. This would go a long way towards upping the number of "space pirates" in the 3G's

Greyaxe · Unread post by **Greyaxe** » Sat Feb 03, 2007 12:49 am

Indeed, pirates may be those who can pirate do pirate, those who don’t have technology pirate the technology and become space faring

KLM · Unread post by **KLM** » Sat Feb 03, 2007 2:58 pm

Insert NE ad.

taalismn · Unread post by **taalismn** » Sat Feb 03, 2007 3:04 pm

....SPACE VIKINGS RULLLLEEEE!!!!!!!!!

(though I'm holding out for the INterstellar MOhicans with their birchbark-patterned assault skiffs...)

(Or maybe just the Mongols led by a cloned Genghis Khan I had take over a Splugorth hunting preserve planet...)

taalismn · Unread post by **taalismn** » Sat Feb 03, 2007 4:33 pm

Darkmax wrote:hmm... the Wrath of Khan II......

Only he's not raiding for horses and silk this time!!!!

Josh Sinsapaugh · Sat Feb 03, 2007 5:17 pm

Greyaxe wrote:The one assumption in PW that is routinely made is once a civilization reaches a technological level they automatically survive into the space age.

What about the Noro's (former) neighbors?

~ Josh

Nekira Sudacne · Sat Feb 03, 2007 5:36 pm

Darkmax wrote:who?

Breifly mentioned in the race writeup. They all but drove their neighbors to extintion in their eairly years.

Josh Sinsapaugh · Sat Feb 03, 2007 5:42 pm

Darkmax wrote:survival of the fittest..... it is a cruel fact.

I was arguing against the idea that in PW, any race that gets technology is assumed to live into the Space Age.

I don't think that is true.

The books don't mention many races that didn't survive into a Space Age, but that doesn't mean that there aren't any. It simply means they haven't been mentioned. And why would they be anyways?

Unless pertinent to a certain race (etc.), such as the Noro, there is no need to mention "there used to be a race over here, but they never survived into the Space Age."

~ Josh

Josh Sinsapaugh · Sat Feb 03, 2007 6:03 pm

Darkmax wrote:Well, I won't say all, but mostly. Since if they have reach that level, they must have some form of control over their own ability to self-preserve. No?

Not necessarily.

I'm sure there are plenty of former races in the Three Galaxies that developed nuclear weapons or another form of WMD, and then ended up blowing themselves to smithereens long before they ever reached a Space Age level of tech.

The same goes for overpopulation, disease, etc.

~ Josh

KLM · Unread post by **KLM** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 1:27 pm

Plus it is mentioned by the description of the Dominators,
that they are "one of the reasons why there aren't many
ancient civilisations around".

Or there probably are civilisations, which depleted their
home planet (or even star system) and never developed
FTL.

Their number depends on how grim you are as a GM.

Adios
KLM

KLM · Unread post by **KLM** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 1:46 pm

[quote="taalismn"]
Or maybe just the Mongols led by a cloned Genghis Khan I had take over a Splugorth hunting preserve planet...)/quote]

Hehe...

http://www.fonyoditibor.hu/file.php?1007

(Hints: 2350 AD and after

)

Adios
KLM

taalismn · Unread post by **taalismn** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 9:43 pm

I like to think that while there are many ancient races in the 3Gs, there aren't as many as there are in say David Brin's Uplift Universe or the Babylon 5 universe...the very presence of dimensional Rifts means that ypu can have ancient races just 'passing through; without cluttering up all the available real estate with ancient artifacts and the like....The Three Galaxies are still relatively young, in other words, and there will lots of availabe real estate that isn't still under million year leases in some ancient realty office...

glitterboy2098 · Sun Feb 04, 2007 9:56 pm

KLM wrote:Plus it is mentioned by the description of the Dominators,
that they are "one of the reasons why there aren't many
ancient civilisations around".

Or there probably are civilisations, which depleted their
home planet (or even star system) and never developed
FTL.

Their number depends on how grim you are as a GM.

Adios
KLM

some might have been wiped out by other races, some might have been wiped out by themselves, others might have merely 'left' to other galaxies, some might have had their civlization collapse and their worlds reducred back to pre-starflight days, only to develop new cultures and evolve into the 'younger' races in the setting, the possibilities are vast.

KLM · Unread post by **KLM** » Mon Feb 05, 2007 5:50 am

Extinct.

Maybe they even existed prior this Big Bang (if
we use such a theory in the 3 Galaxies) cycle
the phase world dimension living in.

Anyhow, after their disappearence, there were plenty
of time for cultures to develop even to the state of
godhood - the prometheans are probably in this phase
(to say so

).

Adios
KLM

Greyaxe · Unread post by **Greyaxe** » Mon Feb 05, 2007 12:05 pm

Josh Sinsapaugh wrote:
Darkmax wrote:survival of the fittest..... it is a cruel fact.

I was arguing against the idea that in PW, any race that gets technology is assumed to live into the Space Age.

I don't think that is true.

The books don't mention many races that didn't survive into a Space Age, but that doesn't mean that there aren't any. It simply means they haven't been mentioned. And why would they be anyways?

Unless pertinent to a certain race (etc.), such as the Noro, there is no need to mention "there used to be a race over here, but they never survived into the Space Age."

~ Josh

They did survive into the space age. They were just wiped out by the first alien species they encountered which changed the Noro philosophy forever.

Braden Campbell · Mon Feb 05, 2007 1:18 pm

Everyone on this forum should read Manifold: Space by Stephen Baxter.
LINK

It's a tad heavy, but it deals with this very question: what would a galaxy filled with aliens be like, and how would we find our place within it?

This is also pertinent: Another LINK

Josh Sinsapaugh · Mon Feb 05, 2007 3:30 pm

Darkmax wrote:remember that we developed nuclear before we flew into space.

And?

Darkmax, I think you are confused (no offense meant).

I am talking about the idea that, in Phase World, it is assumed that a race that gains advanced technology is assumed to survive into a space age (i.e. they manage not to destroy each other BEFORE they make it into a Space Age).

An idea that I don't agree with, I don't believe that that is assumed anywhere in the PW books. I believe that there were countless civilizations that destroyed themselves long before they ever had a chance to make it into Space.

~ Josh

KLM · Unread post by **KLM** » Mon Feb 05, 2007 4:36 pm

Yeah, and probably there are civilisations around, which
are extinct - except for a "sleeper" ship or two, still
crawling to the next star...

...and even those can be devoid of life. But not hunger...

Adios
KLM

Greyaxe · Unread post by **Greyaxe** » Mon Feb 05, 2007 4:42 pm

In a setting like the Three Galaxies, with so many trans galactic powers roaming the skies monitoring space (man made radio frequencies are apparently very easy to spot) it is very unlikely that the "Prime Directive" is really widely used. Typically the major powers would contact technologically sufficient races and guide them through the technological adolescence making the possibility of successfully entering the space age much more likely. As opposed to a planet in Transgalactic space growing independently to see if they want to join the empire or not, yea right. They will be guided into the technology and processed into the empire like good galactic citizens. The CCW really isn’t much better. They wouldn’t force anything on anybody but will defiantly be contacting the race and offering as little or as much assistance as desired. As such most if not all the technologically advanced races do make it into the space era because they get help from the Tran galactic powers in their area.

KLM · Unread post by **KLM** » Mon Feb 05, 2007 5:19 pm

Somehow I guess that CKs predate Noro
spaceflight - and the extinction or the Ironees.

Also, their fate took more, than a spectacular
flash of a gigaton magnitude... So if CKs wanted
to intervene, they had the time for it.

Probably a good deal of inhabited planets are
falling into barbarism or wiped out by deseases
in the area, which is not the Golgan Republik
anymore, but not Central Alliance yet. Maybe they
never will.

But again: I prefer the "high mortality ratio" setting,
and it is just IMO.

It is perfectly plausible to have a brighter 3 galaxies.
---------------------------

As for the TGE: they probably have the same policy
about non-FTL civilisations as the CCW: keep an eye
on them, but nothing else.

However, if they develop star travel... Well, they will
get an offer, they better not reject.

Adios
KLM

Aramanthus · Unread post by **Aramanthus** » Tue Feb 06, 2007 1:05 am

Ummmm I see we wandered off topic again.

Rayven · Unread post by **Rayven** » Tue Feb 06, 2007 1:37 am

Braden, GMPhD wrote:Everyone on this forum should read Manifold: Space by Stephen Baxter.
LINK

Is it really worth the read? I keep meaning to pick it up, but am always overcome with things like "Oooh....a shiney new William Gibson novel."

Rayven · Unread post by **Rayven** » Tue Feb 06, 2007 11:12 pm

Darkmax wrote:
Aramanthus wrote:Ummmm I see we wandered off topic again.

Don't we always.

Click here for an explanation

Aramanthus · Unread post by **Aramanthus** » Wed Feb 07, 2007 2:28 am

LOL

I see your using the Chewbacca defense! (mentioned in a "South Park" episode for those who haven't seen it to recognise the reference. :lol:

Rayven · Unread post by **Rayven** » Wed Feb 07, 2007 2:31 am

Aramanthus wrote:LOL I see your using the Chewbacca defense! (mentioned in a "South Park" episode for those who haven't seen it to recognise the reference.

*tilts head to the side* what now? Chewbacca? LJ isn't here....sorry dude.

Rayven · Unread post by **Rayven** » Wed Feb 07, 2007 3:51 am

duck-foot wrote:LJ? I am a star wars fanatic i think i would know if a charectors name was initialed (i know i spelt that wrong) as LJ

That's right....you don't know. There is a poster on the boards named LJavelle who claims to be a wookie.

Rayven · Unread post by **Rayven** » Wed Feb 07, 2007 9:48 pm

Darkmax wrote:half bear and all furry..........

Not going there...

Aramanthus · Unread post by **Aramanthus** » Thu Feb 08, 2007 12:01 am

Neither am I!

9voltkilowatt · Thu Feb 08, 2007 12:47 am

Rayven wrote:
Darkmax wrote:half bear and all furry..........

Not going there...

I will, and I'll even take pictures for ya!

Braden Campbell · Thu Feb 08, 2007 1:42 pm

Braden, GMPhD wrote:
First we need to assume the following - The Corkscrew has 162 billion stars, the Thundercloud has 18 billion stars, and the Anvil has 4 million stars. These numbers are educated guesses based on the size of our own galaxy, the Milky Way.

Second, we accept the following - that of those stars, only .1% will form a planet with some kind of intelligent life on it (this low percentage is to keep the numbers down)

Third, from the original Phase World book - the CCW controls 33% of the Corkscrew (53,460,000 worlds), 20% of the Thundercloud (3,600,000 planets), and 50% of the Anvil (2000 worlds). The total number of Consotium planets would then be 57,062,000!
.

To get back to topic (god, I really wish you guys would stop derailing posts)...

Bill Coffin wrote that the CCW has 231 members and 100 "associated" races spread over 5000 planets and assorted other places. So, if my math says there are 57 million CCW planets, and Bill says there are only 5000 ---> then of all the worlds claimed by the CCW, only .02% have some kind of indigenous intelligent life.

So, is life rampant in the Phase World universe, or it found once in every 11,000 potential planets?

Josh Sinsapaugh · Thu Feb 08, 2007 1:46 pm

I'd bet that many of the planets that they "claim" or "control" don't even have intelligent life on them, or that the intelligent life on them are oblivious to the fact that they are claimed by the CCW.

I think life would be found on every 11,000 potential planets - which still makes life rampant as far as I am concerned.

~ Josh

Greyaxe · Unread post by **Greyaxe** » Thu Feb 08, 2007 2:09 pm

We are also talking about intelligent life, I’m sure there are hundreds or maybe even thousands of planets where life exists but never developed any intelligent life. So you could say life exists on .1% of planets and intelligent life exists on .1% of those planets which would still leave tens upon thousands of intelligent races in the galaxies. That is a lot of life.

Aramanthus · Unread post by **Aramanthus** » Thu Feb 08, 2007 11:21 pm

That doesn't sound too bad for numbers!

Josh Sinsapaugh · Fri Feb 09, 2007 5:52 pm

Darkmax wrote:wait.. these figures refer to the entire galaxies, right?.... not just the outer rims...

Not to sure about that. :-?

Anvil Galaxy notes that life is more prevalent in the Core [of the Anvil Galaxy] than it is in the Halo, with several ancient and odd alien civilizations found therein.

Should those numbers only apply to the Halo?

Or do they apply, and do so well, because there are more stars in the Core of the galaxies?

Actually, yeah, that makes sense. They would apply to the Core as well as the Halo, and with more stars in the Core it fits canon.

~ Josh

Aramanthus · Unread post by **Aramanthus** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:12 pm

Yeah Josh. I think those number should only apply to the Halo.

Josh Sinsapaugh · Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:28 pm

Aramanthus wrote:Yeah Josh. I think those number should only apply to the Halo.

Actually, I believe that they can be universal as, in the Core, there is supposed to be more life than in the Halo. And with more stars in the Core, this keeps the formula accurate.

Well, perhaps "accurate to a degree..."

Though, admittedly, I am still undecided.

~ Josh

Aramanthus · Unread post by **Aramanthus** » Tue Feb 13, 2007 1:16 am

To a degree.................. I guess it could work there too.

Greyaxe · Unread post by **Greyaxe** » Tue Feb 13, 2007 10:14 am

Aramanthus wrote:Yeah Josh. I think those number should only apply to the Halo.

THe number should apply to both because the calculation applies to all the stars int he galaxy being calculated. THerefore the total number of sentient species in a given galaxy represents the whole of that galaxy not just part of it.

glitterboy2098 · Tue Feb 13, 2007 2:25 pm

Bill Coffin wrote that the CCW has 231 members and 100 "associated" races spread over 5000 planets and assorted other places. So, if my math says there are 57 million CCW planets, and Bill says there are only 5000 ---> then of all the worlds claimed by the CCW, only .02% have some kind of indigenous intelligent life.

So, is life rampant in the Phase World universe, or it found once in every 11,000 potential planets?

i liken this to the star trek debate over the size of the federation, where in one TOS episode kirk defines humanity as being on a thousand planets, and yet Picard says the federation is only 150 planets.

for Phase world, i think we can assume that the CCW controls 57 million planets, but inhabits only 5000 or so. the rest are either uninhabited, uninhabitable, or inhabited by a non-starfaring race that the CCW protects but has left alone, with no official contact.

the only variable we need to alter is the frequency of habitable planets. i think we can assume that if a planet is habitable, it will develop life, and it develops life, it will eventually produce or provide a home to an intellegent species.

and if you don't count colonies on non-habitable worlds (gas giants, asteroids, moons, ect), you can probably justify them having only 5000 worlds while controling 57mil. quite literally, the CCW controls the sectors, but doesn't own the planets. (kinda like the Asgard 'protected planets' in SG1.)

KLM · Unread post by **KLM** » Tue Feb 13, 2007 3:25 pm

Just two virtual cents on the fly:

There are a given number calculated on the
approximated number of stars in the galaxy.

However... How many are them in the halo?

And remember, the Halo is like 100 ly in thickness,
but the galaxies a much thicker. Just the skin of the
orange (OK, galaxies are not orbs).

So, maybe both the calculation AND the total number
is correct. So the intruders might as well come from
one of the cores... And there are more.

Adios
KLM

Aramanthus · Unread post by **Aramanthus** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 1:14 am

The biggest problem with that formula is that is was created before we had discovered our first planet outside of our solar system. I think that the formula may have to evole as time progresses.

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